10-Day: Slightly Wetter/Cooler Pattern Unfolding

It won’t get a round of applause from most, but a few farmers and construction workers may be happy about it.  A slight shift in our weather pattern will result in slightly higher rain chances and “not as hot” high temperatures this week in north Florida. No, there won’t be a cold front. However, some sense of “normalcy” will return with a more active sea breeze pattern and temperatures closer to the 30-year running averages for this time of year.

Animation of the subtle pattern shift that is likely to take place this week across the Southeast US.

Animation of the subtle pattern shift that is likely to take place this week across the Southeast US.

 

The Small Shift This Week

The high temperatures in Gainesville over the past ten days, along with forecast numbers for the next ten.

The high temperatures in Gainesville over the past ten days, along with forecast numbers for the next ten.

For several weeks, a ridge of high pressure (often called the “Bermuda High”) has been unusually strong and displaced farther west.  Rather than a weak southerly flow that more easily transports moisture in from both the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, the sinking air and dominant easterly wind from this ridge of high pressure has largely suppressed thunderstorm development and resulting normal rainfall.  This same stagnant pattern has also been a contributing factor to the flooding rains across the south-central Plains in states like Texas and Oklahoma.  Starting today, there is evidence that the ridge will break down or weaken a bit, thereby allowing a slightly stronger sea breeze wind pattern to develop and kicking off more numerous afternoon thunderstorms.  A more dominant southwest wind will also aid in the transport of deeper moisture and higher resulting rain chances over the coming afternoons.  This, in turn, will act to halt the soaring mercury we’ve experienced each and every afternoon over the past week and high temperatures will likely only reach the lower and middle 90’s, as opposed to upper 90’s.  Plenty of humidity will stick around, though, so those daily “feels like” numbers will still be near or just above 100.

 

Even Bigger Changes Next Week

Long range forecast data is starting to suggest a rather dramatic shift in the eastern U.S. weather pattern will occur by month’s end.  An unusually strong trough of low pressure is projected to develop over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, potentially sending a cold front all the way in to the deep south by June 28 or 29.  It is highly unlikely the front will clear north Florida, but its close proximity alone will keep the higher rain chances and cooler temperature trend going, with possibly even a few days of below average temperatures the result.  Stay tuned for updates on this potential and keep tabs on your latest 10-Day Outlook below…

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10-DAY OUTLOOK