Hurricane Earl has formed in the Western Caribbean. Hurricane Hunters found sustained winds up to 75 mph near the former tropical storm’s center Wednesday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center has issued Hurricane Warning for the Bay Islands, the north coast of Honduras, Belize, and parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. As of 5 pm, Earl was located 150 miles east of Belize City and was moving west at 14 mph.
Hurricane Earl will continue its westward track toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Landfall is expected in Belize by early Thursday morning. If the system survives its track over land, it would emerge over the Bay of Campeche, and potentially make a second landfall in southeastern Mexico this weekend.
The biggest threat from Earl will be flooding, due to high rainfall rates, and damage from hurricane force winds. Confidence is high that the storm will not impact the State of Florida. However, outer rain bands, rip currents, and high surf could potentially move as far north as southeast Texas this weekend.
000 WTNT32 KNHC 240834 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016 ...GASTON A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 38.6W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 38.6 West. Gaston is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Gaston is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
000 WTNT22 KNHC 240834 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 38.6W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 38.6W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 38.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 40.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.2N 42.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.4N 45.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.9N 47.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.9N 52.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 29.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 31.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 38.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
000 WTNT42 KNHC 240835 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016 A 0414 UTC AMSR2 microwave image revealed that Gaston's structure has improved with the development of a well-defined low-level cloud ring and a mid-level microwave eye. However, the mid-level center is displaced about 25 n mi to the northeast of the low-level center. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, but objective numbers are still between 55-60 kt. Given the tilted structure of the cyclone, the initial intensity is only raised to 60 kt on this advisory. University of Wisconsin CIMSS shear analyses indicate that 10 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting Gaston, which could explain the cyclone's tilted structure. The shear is expected to remain low enough during the next 24 hours to allow Gaston to strengthen to a hurricane later today. However, the intensification trend should be interrupted after 24 hours, continuing through day 3, when Gaston moves into a higher shear zone to the east of a mid-/upper-level low. Some strengthening is then probable on days 4 and 5 when Gaston moves north of the upper low into a lower-shear environment. The intensity models are in very good agreement on this general scenario, and the official NHC forecast was only lowered a bit at 36 and 48 hours to be more in line with the IVCN consensus. Tracking the low-level center observed in microwave data yields a motion of 290/15 kt. Gaston is approaching a break in the subtropical ridge caused by the aforementioned mid-/upper-level low, and the steering currents should cause the motion to become northwestward later today and continue along that heading for the next four days. By day 5, Gaston is expected to slow down and turn northward to the west of a mid-level high. There is lower-than- normal spread among the track guidance for the entire five-day forecast period, and the NHC forecast continues to closely follow the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.9N 38.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.2N 40.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 18.2N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 20.4N 45.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 22.9N 47.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 26.9N 52.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 29.5N 55.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 31.5N 55.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
000 FONT12 KNHC 240834 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 08:36:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 09:05:37 GMT