Hurricane Earl Forms in the Western Caribbean

Hurricane Earl has formed in the Western Caribbean.  Hurricane Hunters found sustained winds up to 75 mph near the former tropical storm’s center Wednesday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center has issued Hurricane Warning for the Bay Islands, the north coast of Honduras, Belize, and parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. As of 5 pm, Earl was located 150 miles east of Belize City and was moving west at 14 mph.

 

 

Hurricane Earl will continue its westward track toward the Yucatan Peninsula.  Landfall is expected in Belize by early Thursday morning.  If the system survives its track over land, it would emerge over the Bay of Campeche, and potentially make a second landfall in southeastern Mexico this weekend.

The biggest threat from Earl will be flooding, due to high rainfall rates, and damage from hurricane force winds.  Confidence is high that the storm will not impact the State of Florida. However, outer rain bands, rip currents, and high surf could potentially move as far north as southeast Texas this weekend.

NHC STORM TRACK

FORECAST MODELS

HURRICANE HUNTERS

WATCHES/WARNINGS


Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
...GASTON A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 24 the center of GASTON was located near 14.9, -38.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 7

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

000
WTNT32 KNHC 240834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

...GASTON A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 38.6W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 38.6 West.  Gaston is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph.  A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Gaston is expected to become a hurricane later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 7

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 24 2016

000
WTNT22 KNHC 240834
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
0900 UTC WED AUG 24 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  38.6W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  38.6W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  38.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N  40.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.2N  42.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.4N  45.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.9N  47.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.9N  52.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 29.5N  55.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 31.5N  55.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N  38.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 


Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 7

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

000
WTNT42 KNHC 240835
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

A 0414 UTC AMSR2 microwave image revealed that Gaston's structure
has improved with the development of a well-defined low-level cloud
ring and a mid-level microwave eye.  However, the mid-level center
is displaced about 25 n mi to the northeast of the low-level
center.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both
T4.0/65 kt, but objective numbers are still between 55-60 kt.  Given
the tilted structure of the cyclone, the initial intensity is only
raised to 60 kt on this advisory.

University of Wisconsin CIMSS shear analyses indicate that 10 kt
of southwesterly shear is affecting Gaston, which could explain
the cyclone's tilted structure.  The shear is expected to remain low
enough during the next 24 hours to allow Gaston to strengthen to a
hurricane later today.  However, the intensification trend should be
interrupted after 24 hours, continuing through day 3, when Gaston
moves into a higher shear zone to the east of a mid-/upper-level
low.  Some strengthening is then probable on days 4 and 5 when
Gaston moves north of the upper low into a lower-shear environment.
The intensity models are in very good agreement on this general
scenario, and the official NHC forecast was only lowered a bit at
36 and 48 hours to be more in line with the IVCN consensus.

Tracking the low-level center observed in microwave data yields a
motion of 290/15 kt.  Gaston is approaching a break in the
subtropical ridge caused by the aforementioned mid-/upper-level
low, and the steering currents should cause the motion to become
northwestward later today and continue along that heading for the
next four days.  By day 5, Gaston is expected to slow down and turn
northward to the west of a mid-level high.  There is lower-than-
normal spread among the track guidance for the entire five-day
forecast period, and the NHC forecast continues to closely follow
the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 14.9N  38.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.2N  40.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 18.2N  42.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 20.4N  45.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 22.9N  47.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 26.9N  52.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 29.5N  55.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 31.5N  55.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 24 2016

000
FONT12 KNHC 240834
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016               
0900 UTC WED AUG 24 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     


Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Tropical Storm GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 08:36:03 GMT

Tropical Storm GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 09:05:37 GMT