Note:The post below is a more technical update on the forecast and what we are working on behind the scenes. It is not designed to be an official forecast from the UF Weather Center, nor should it be treated as such. It is designed to be an avenue of communication among our team members around the clock.

Tornado Risk Elevated EARLY Tuesday

I’m sending notice to our media properties for possible severe weather coverage in North Florida Tuesday MORNING 6 am to Noon.

Latest data suggests that there will be adequate shear and helicity to warrant a severe risk across nearly all of the North Florida market area Tuesday morning. This is despite limited instability that would typically mitigate a severe weather risk in the morning hours, especially when abundant cloud cover and pre-frontal showers are present. At the time of this post, the Storm Prediction Center has all of North Florida in a “marginal” risk, with areas near Lake City and Live Oak in a “slight risk”.

There has been a remarkable surge in moisture and warmth across the state today, with numerous record daytime highs and record warm overnight lows in jeopardy. This is priming the atmosphere for the arrival of a seasonably strong cold front and associated area of low pressure on Tuesday.  A strong flow out of the southwest could bring convection inland along the Nature Coast as early as daybreak Tuesday. This first round of thunderstorm activity will move northeast and primarily affect areas north of a line from Cedar Key to Starke.  A second, somewhat broken but still potentially severe line of thunderstorms are expected to develop further south and east after sunrise, pushing across the Gainesville and Ocala metro areas by midday.

Primary hazards will include isolated tornadoes and wind damage. Storm motion will generally be to the northeast at a very fast 30 to 40 mph. Multiple cells could hit any given area through the period.