Note:The post below is a more technical update on the forecast and what we are working on behind the scenes. It is not designed to be an official forecast from the UF Weather Center, nor should it be treated as such. It is designed to be an avenue of communication among our team members around the clock.

Coldest Temps So Far This Season

We started off the work week with record warmth and we’re ending it with our first blast of arctic air.

Although it is noticeably cooler and drier highs today are still forecast to be around 6 degrees above the average.

Tonight: Patchy radiation fog is possible in the early morning hours, but it should not be anywhere near as widespread or as dense as this morning’s fog. Lows will be near average, only a few degrees above.

Thursday: A dry arctic front will be moving through.  Models have been consistently showing zero rainfall with this front, so Pops were removed yesterday.

The coldest air so far this season will be moving in behind the front Thursday night.  This will be an arctic airmass, so temperatures will be dropping to near 40 for a low Friday morning.  If you factor in northwesterly winds at 10 miles per hour, wind chills will be in the mid to low 30’s. Afternoon temps will be in the 50’s and then drop quickly through the 40’s after sunset.  It’ll be the coldest day in ___ months.

Saturday: A light freeze will occur with lows at or below freezing. Northerly winds will be blowing at 10-15 miles per hour leading to wind chills in the 20’s. Highs will be a touch warmer (but still below average) in the low 60’s Saturday afternoon.

Sunday – Monday: A high pressure ridge will build in the southeastern U.S. and the winds will shift out of the south causing warmer days with highs in the mid to upper 70’s.

Another cold front will be approaching Monday, but this one will be relatively weak and  models have it barely moving through. GFS show no rainfall with this front and EURO would prompt 30% pops.  I went with a blend and left pops at 20 Monday.

Tuesday: The front will have weak air advection, so temps will only be a few degrees cooler behind it Tuesday afternoon.. in the low 70’s opposed to the upper 70’s the day before.

Long term: A stronger front is shown to be moving through Thursday with measurable rain. We’ll keep an eye on this as time goes on and models have a more accurate grasp on the timing and strength.

Changes:

Wed High: 74 from 75

Thursday low: 48 from 49

Thursday high: 69 from 71

Friday low: 40 from 37

Friday high: 57 from 54

Saturday low: 31 from 30

Sunday low: 45 from 43

Sunday high 73 from 72

Monday low: 55 from 51

Monday high 76 from 74

Tuesday low 54 from 47

Tuesday high 73 from 77