Category: Forecast Notes

Front Moves Through Wednesday

Surface high pressure over west central Florida and dry air aloft is giving us a beautiful Tuesday. However, we still have warm, moist southerly flow at the surface and it’s another unseasonably warm day. Highs will climb to near 80, but skies will remain mostly clear. Fog will develop once again overnight, but I don’t expect it to be as...

Weak Front Approaching

Short Term: Southwesterly flow is moving warm, moist air into the region. Therefore it’s unseasonably warm once again this afternoon with highs topping out near 80. A few brief showers are possible before 4 pm, but I think chances are better to our north and east. Models are showing little to no coverage over Alachua County, hence pops only at...

Coldest Temps So Far This Season

We started off the work week with record warmth and we’re ending it with our first blast of arctic air. Although it is noticeably cooler and drier highs today are still forecast to be around 6 degrees above the average. Tonight: Patchy radiation fog is possible in the early morning hours, but it should not be anywhere near as widespread...

Drier, Slightly Cooler Air Moving In/Arctic Air on the Way

Our low this morning was 72. That is four degrees below the average HIGH of 68 degrees for this date. Furthermore the high this afternoon is forecast at 81, only 2 degrees shy of the record 83 set in 1942/during WWII. Gainesville broke the record high of 84 for Dec. 5 set in 1994 with a high of 85. Short...

Tornado Risk Elevated EARLY Tuesday

I’m sending notice to our media properties for possible severe weather coverage in North Florida Tuesday MORNING 6 am to Noon. Latest data suggests that there will be adequate shear and helicity to warrant a severe risk across nearly all of the North Florida market area Tuesday morning. This is despite limited instability that would typically mitigate a severe weather...

Severe Weather Risk Tuesday

Strong Storms Possible Mainly in our Northwestern zones this evening, overnight, and early Tuesday.   Short term: The SPC has highlighted most of northwest Florida for a slight risk of severe weather. This includes areas near the Suwanee River Valley and west (the panhandle). The primary threat is wind damage due to the potential of winds in excess of 60...

Two Fronts: One Wet, One Cold

I flushed Editor to use prepopulated intellicast data as more guidance. Our forecast was headed in the right direction, but I did need to move data around a bit to drive home two points: 1) possible strong storms Mon night & Tuesday, and 2) arctic air arrives Friday, with even the rare possibility of falling afternoon temps. The first point...

Dry conditions continue, fronts next week?

Our historically dry November looks like it will close on a dry note.  First, the front moving through today is bringing in a modestly drier airmass, pushing lows back in the upper 40s and low 50s the next two nights. A surface high builds in Monday and Tuesday that will favor east, then southeast, then southerly flow over that 48...

Warm and Dry This Week

I took out rain chances for Tuesday. Models should us trending dry and NWS discussion mentioned the coastal trough would move more NE by monday night. Almost increase Mondays POPs to 30 percent because of how much precipitation the WRF was showing. After looking at the NAM, GFS AND CMC….we are looking dry. So 20% seemed safe. Tuesday thru Friday...

Thursday morning notes

Veteran’s day weekend is shaping up to be a nice one in North Central Florida. High pressure in control now will stay in control through Friday. It will break down as a secondary cold front moves through Friday night- this will be a dry passage though with just a few clouds. This front will keep temps in check and seasonable...