FLORIDA STORMS CENTER
April 5, 2017 • By Meteorologist Jeff Huffman • Updated: 2 years ago
A strong spring storm will send a cold front quickly through all of Florida by midday Thursday. The system was approaching the western side of the panhandle Wednesday afternoon, and a “Particularly Dangerous Situation” Tornado Watch was issued by the National Weather Service for Panama City and points north untilRead more
Real-time tropical weather tracking is also available from WUFT-FM, home of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network
Learn what to do before, during, and after a storm. Get Ready!
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FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a mid-level area of low pressure
interacting with a surface trough located near the Texas coast.
Development of this system is not expected before it moves inland
over Texas later today and tonight. However, abundant moisture
streaming northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico will increase the
chance of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of
southern and southeastern Texas during the next few days. For more
details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall,
please see products issued by your local weather office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
AXNT20 KNHC 180530
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave axis extends from 12N26W to 02N26W. This wave is
moving W around 10 kt and is well defined in the TPW product as
well as in model diagnostic guidance. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time.
A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N43W to 03N46W, moving W at 10 kt. A modest surge of
moistened air is noted in association with this wave in TPW
imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are
associated with this wave.
A tropical wave over the tropical N Atlantic has an axis
extending from 14N56W to 06N58W, moving W at around 15 kt. The
wave is depicted in model guidance and coincides with a high
amplitude bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW product.
Currently, scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 10N
between 53W and 56W.
A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an
axis extending along 72W-73W between 12N-20N, moving W at 10-15
kt. African dust surrounds the wave's environment. As a result,
only shallow moisture and no convection is associated with this
feature at this time.
A tropical wave is moving across southern Mexico and the EPAC
waters, with axis extending from 19N95W to 12N96W, moving W at
around 10-15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is
embedded in deep layer moisture. The wave is also interacting with
an upper-level trough currently located over the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 15N between
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 08N24W. The ITCZ is from 06N29W to 06N42W, then resumes from
06N47W to 08N56W. In addition to the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is evident
from 05N-10N between 18W-23W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level trough extends across the western Gulf with axis
along 95W, with an upper-level low centered near 21N95W. Fresh to
locally strong winds are occurring to the east of the low
primarily over the Gulf waters between 88W-93W due to a tight
pressure gradient. Scattered moderate convection covers the Gulf
mainly west of 87W. Heavy rainfall continues over the Yucatan
Peninsula with localized flooding possible. To the east, a weak
1020 mb high pressure resides over the far NE Gulf near 29N84W.
The upper-level trough will gradually move WNW through Mon,
accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
that could produce rough seas. The tight pressure gradient will
support fresh to strong SE winds over the west-central Gulf
waters. These winds will spread westward through Tue while
Fresh to strong trades across the S central Caribbean from 11N to
14N between 73W and 79W will gradually decrease in areal coverage
through mid week. Similar pulsing winds will continue in the
vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras.
A tropical wave will reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
towards the morning, then enter the eastern Caribbean through Wed
night. This system is expected to be accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. As the wave passes across the Lesser
Antilles into the eastern Caribbean, it will bring gusty winds and
a modest increase in showers and thunderstorms to the Leeward
Islands, the UK/US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week.
A cold front extends SW from 31N56W to 25N70W, then becomes weak
through 29N79W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are present
along and up to 180 nm SE of the front north of 27N and east of
75W. A 1033 mb surface high centered over the Azores near 38N26W
ridges SW to the northeast of Puerto Rico near 20N68W.
The cold front will stall over and E of the northern Bahamas
during the next couple of days while weakening. The high pressure
ridge over the Azores will continue to ridge SW across the
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000 NOUS42 KNHC 171709 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EDT SUN 17 JUNE 2018 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JUNE 2018 TCPOD NUMBER.....18-024 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF NNNN