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Wind Damage, Tornadoes Possible in Parts of Florida Tonight

April 5, 2017   •   By Meteorologist Jeff Huffman   •    Updated: 2 years ago

A strong spring storm will send a cold front quickly through all of Florida by midday Thursday.  The system was approaching the western side of the panhandle Wednesday afternoon, and a “Particularly Dangerous Situation” Tornado Watch was issued by the National Weather Service for Panama City and points north untilRead more

Real-time tropical weather tracking is also available from WUFT-FM, home of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network


FL Get A Plan!

Learn what to do before, during, and after a storm. Get Ready!


@FloridaStorms

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ACTIVE STORMS ATLANTIC OUTLOOK HURRICANE HUNTERS FORECAST DISCUSSION


Sorry, the http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_at.xml feed is not available at this time.

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NHC Atlantic Outlook

Published: Tuesday September 25th, 2018 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Depression Leslie, located a little over 1100 miles west-southwest
of the Azores.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 260 miles south of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and
thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite and surface data
indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well
organized. However, this system could still become a tropical
depression later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and
Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong
upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and
north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system is likely to
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today
and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast
today. For more information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. The remnants of Kirk are located about 950 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph.
This system continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force in gusts on its
north side. However, satellite data indicate that the system still
lacks a closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves
into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and
Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as
gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple
of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical
cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical
today after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic.
After that time, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch





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NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Published: Tuesday September 25th, 2018 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster)

101
AXNT20 KNHC 251201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...Special Features...

Subtropical Depression Leslie was centered near 31.9N 46.2W at
0900 UTC, or about 1015 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SE at 7 kt.
A faster east to northeast motion is expected later today and
Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north by Wednesday night.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is limited to the eastern semicircle but extends outward up to
330 nm from the center. Leslie is expected to lose its subtropical
characteristics by tonight. Strengthening as a post-tropical
cyclone is expected, and Leslie is forecast to become a large and
powerful post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday with winds approaching
hurricane force. After that time, Leslie is expected to reacquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as
it meanders over the central Atlantic. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

A broad 1014 mb low is centered about 230 nm south of Cape
Hatteras near 31N75W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to
28N76W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is NE of the
center from 30N-34N between 70W-76W. Satellite data indicate that
the circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized.
However, this system could still become a tropical depression
later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and
Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong
upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and north-
northeastward near the southeastern United States coast. There is
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

The remnants of Kirk are analyzed as a tropical wave along 45W
from 04N to 16N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is associated with the wave from 09N-14N between
42W-49W. Winds to gale force are in the northern portion of the
wave. This system could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during
the next two days before it encounters unfavorable upper-level
winds east of the the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and
Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as
gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely by Thursday, even
if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W/21W from 03N-17N,
moving west at 15 kt. A 700 mb trough associated with this wave is
well depicted in model guidance, and there is evidence of
cyclonic curvature in the winds near the surface. Deep convection
is limited due to the presence of Saharan air, although a small
area of isolated moderate convection is present from 11N-14N
between the coast of Africa and the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 57W from 03N-17N, moving west at 15 kt.
The wave corresponds with a moisture maximum in TPW imagery.
Scattered showers are located from 08N-12N between 52W-59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 06N35W to 11N43W, then
resumes west of the remnants of Kirk near 08N47W to the coast of
South America near 06N54W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are from 02N to 08N between 27W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front over the NW Gulf has dissipated. A thermal
trough is over the eastern Bay of Campeche, with isolated showers
within 60 nm of the trough axis. This trough will drift westward
across the Bay of Campeche this morning. Gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across most of the
basin through the middle of this week. Winds will increase to
between moderate and fresh during the second half of this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough moving slowly westward over the eastern
Caribbean extends from 18N62W to 12N63W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
continues to enhance scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection in the SW Caribbean from 10N-14N between 77W-83W.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Belize and the NW Caribbean
to the east of Belize. Expect fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean through midweek, with moderate to fresh winds
thereafter through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Currently, there are three tropical waves, and a subtropical
depression in the Atlantic. There is also a low with development
potential off the southeast coast of the U.S. See the sections
above for details.

Elsewhere, GOES-16 split-window satellite imagery shows a large
area of Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic from 11N-25N
between 30W-55W, moving W, and partially surrounds the remnants
of Kirk on the north side.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by high pressure centered well north of the area
over the far northeast Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell/Hagen




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Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day

Published: Monday September 24th, 2018 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster)
 
 208 
 NOUS42 KNHC 241548
 REPRPD
 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
 CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
 1145 AM EDT MON 24 SEPTEMBER 2018
 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
          VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
          TCPOD NUMBER.....18-123
 
 I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
        A. 25/2100Z                   A. 26/0530Z,1130Z
        B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0114A CYCLONE
        C. 25/1830Z                   C. 26/0300Z
        D. 25/2030Z TO 26/0030Z       D. 26/0500Z TO 26/1130Z
        E. 32.5N 76.7W                E. 34.0N 76.3W
        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
  
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
        A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS AND
           REMAINS A THREAT.
        B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
           DEPRESSION KIRK FOR 26/1500Z NEAR 11.8N 54.0W.
 
 II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
 
 $$
 SEF
 
 NNNN