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Fiona, Gaston, and "Something" to Watch

August 23, 2016   •   By Meteorologist Jeff Huffman   •    Updated: 3 months ago

The heart of hurricane season is here, and the tropics are certainly alive. Three systems of interest are moving across the open waters of the Atlantic. Fizzling Tropical Depression Fiona and budding Tropical Storm Gaston are of little concern, but a much weaker undeveloped tropical "something" - presently referred as InvestRead more

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FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ACTIVE STORMS ATLANTIC OUTLOOK HURRICANE HUNTERS FORECAST DISCUSSION


Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
...GASTON HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 24 the center of GASTON was located near 16.1, -39.4 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 8

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

000
WTNT32 KNHC 241455
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER   8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY

...GASTON HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 39.4W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 39.4 West. Gaston is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Although Gaston could become a hurricane today, some
weakening is forecast on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 8

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

000
WTNT42 KNHC 241457
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016

Corrected for initial intensity

Gaston's overall cloud pattern has not changed much in organization
since the last advisory.  The low-level center is located underneath
a small central dense overcast (CDO), with hints of a prototype eye
within the convective mass.  A solid band, attached to the CDO,
wraps around the eastern half of the circulation.  A 1234 UTC ASCAT
pass supports keeping the initial wind estimate at 60 kt.

Gaston could still reach hurricane strength today.  However, the
shear associated with a potent mid- to upper-level trough along 52W
is forecast to greatly increase over Gaston and peak in 36 to 48
hours.  Even though the cyclone will gradually be moving over warmer
waters at that time, the shear should be enough to arrest its
development or perhaps even result in weakening.  By 72 hours,
Gaston's involvement with the trough should lessen and the shear
should decrease.  Much lower westerly shear is forecast toward the
end of the forecast period, which should give Gaston an opportunity
to re-strengthen, and perhaps significantly, as it moves over waters
of around 29 deg C.  The new NHC intensity forecast is reduced some
compared to the previous one through 48 hours, but shows slightly
greater intensification by 120 hours.  The official forecast is in
generally in good agreement with the multi-model consensus.

The latest fixes indicate that Gaston's heading has a much greater
northerly component, and the long-term initial motion estimate is
305/14.  Gaston is expected to move northwestward between a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic and the aforementioned
trough to the west during the next 3 days.  After 72 hours, Gaston
should gradually turn north-northwestward and northward with a
considerable decrease in forward speed, when it encounters a more
substantial break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge along 60W.  The
ECMWF shows less ridging and makes Gaston vulnerable to the mid-
latitude westerlies earlier, with the model showing recurvature
before 120 hours.  The bulk of the guidance, however, lies farther
west, with these models showing more ridging north of Gaston through
day 5.  The new track forecast is a little right of the previous
one through 72 hours in response to the cyclone's abrupt change in
heading since the last advisory and is close to a blend of the
ECMWF and GFS solutions.  The track beyond 72 hours was adjusted
westward and remains close to a ECMWF/GFS model blend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.1N  39.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.5N  41.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 19.6N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 21.9N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 24.3N  47.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 27.8N  53.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 30.5N  55.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 32.2N  56.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Tropical Storm GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 14:56:25 GMT

Tropical Storm GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 15:05:37 GMT


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NHC Atlantic Outlook

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. A strong tropical wave and associated broad area of low pressure is
moving westward across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Reports from an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft and surface
observations indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined
circulation, but it nevertheless is producing tropical-storm-force
winds in squalls over the northernmost Leeward Islands and adjacent
waters. Although upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for additional development, this system could
become a tropical storm or tropical depression at any time during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development by the weekend when the system is near the
central or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, squalls to tropical storm force can be
expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the
northern U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon. Strong
winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are
expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next
couple of days. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National
Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties
regarding this system's development and future track, it is too
early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown





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NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 16.1N 39.4W at 24/1500 UTC
or about 886 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands moving northwest
at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 14N-19N between 36W-44W. Please see
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 21N66W to a 1009 mb low near 18N63W to 12N61W.
At this time, scattered moderate convection is observed from
15N-21N between 61W-68W. As of 25/1500 UTC; an Air Force
Reconnaissance aircraft and latest scatterometer data reported
gale force winds from 17N-20N between 61W-65W in association to
this system. Although environmental conditions are currently
marginally conducive for additional development, this system could
become a tropical depression or tropical storm at any time during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10-15
kt across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and the Bahamas. Strong winds, heavy rains, and flash floods and
mudslides are possible across these islands. This system has a
medium chance of tropical formation through the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

See above.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W and continues to 08N27W. The ITCZ begins
near 09N43W and continues to 06N57W. Clusters of moderate convection
are south of the Monsoon Trough mainly south of 10N east of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1020 mb
high centered near 28N93W. To the east of this feature; a surface
trough extends from 30N86W to 26N88W with isolated moderate
convection. Another surface trough extends over the southeast Gulf
waters and the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula from
25N83W to 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along
this boundary. Scatterometer data and surface observations depict
a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the surface ridge to shift northward.
Convection will continue across the southeast waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern this morning is the tropical wave/low moving
through the Lesser Antilles. Please see the Special Features
section above for more information. An elongated upper-level low
is centered in the western Caribbean near 18N85W. This feature is
supporting isolated moderate convection mainly west of 78W. To the
south; the Monsoon Trough extends north of Panama along 10N supporting
scattered moderate convection between 76W-83W. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh trades across most of the area except
south of 13N between 73W-78W where fresh to strong winds prevail.
As of 25/1500 UTC; an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft and latest
scatterometer data reported gale force winds north of 17N and east
of 64W in association to the tropical wave/low pressure in the
eastern Caribbean. Expect through the next 24 hours for the
surface low to continue moving west-northwest with convection and
gusty winds. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave and
low in the Lesser Antilles are approaching the island at this
time. Expect weather conditions to deteriorate as these features
continue moving west. The low is expected to be north of the Mona
Passage late tonight then northwest of Haiti by late Thursday
night. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and flash floods and mud slides
are possible across the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The areas of concern across the basin are the east-central
Atlantic due to Tropical Storm Gaston and the possible
development of the low and tropical wave currently moving across
the Lesser Antilles. Please see the Special Features section
above for details. A surface trough extends across the western
Atlantic from 26N80W to 29N75W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the trough and over the adjacent area from 26N-28N.
A stationary front extends from the end of the surface trough to
32N67W. Isolated convection is observed along the front. To the
east; a 1016 mb surface low is centered near 28N67W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 28N-31N between 60W-68W. Another
surface trough extends across the central Atlantic from 26N51W to
31N47W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on
either side of this boundary. Surface ridging dominates the
remainder of the basin. Expect for the Special Features low/tropical
wave to track northwest through the Bahama chain before reaching
the northwest Bahamas this weekend. Tropical Storm Gaston is
will remain east of 60W as it tracks northwest before turning
northward by Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA




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Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day

Published: Wednesday August 24th, 2016 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster)
 
 000
 NOUS42 KNHC 241726
 REPRPD
 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
 CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
 0130 PM EDT WED 24 AUGUST 2016
 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
          VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2016
          TCPOD NUMBER.....16-090 AMENDMENT
 
 I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS.....THE ONLY CHANGES ARE IN REMARKS
     1. SUSPECT AREA 
        FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73           FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72
        A. 26/0000Z                    A. 25/2330Z, 26/0530Z
        B. AFXXX 0508A CYCLONE         B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
        C. 25/1630Z                    C. 25/2130Z
        D. NA                          D. 21.3N 72.0W
        E. NA                          E. 25/2300Z TO 26/0530Z
        F. 30,000 FT                   F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       
        FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
        A. 26/1130Z,1730Z
        B. AFXXX 0708A CYCLONE
        C. 26/0915Z
        D. 22.0N 73.4W
        E. 26/1100Z TO 26/1730Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
 
     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.     
 
     3. REMARKS: ADDED
        A. MISSION FOR 24/2330Z AND 25/0530Z CANCELED... ADDED
        B. NEXT MISSION INTO THIS SYSTEM DELAYING THE 25/1130Z
           FIX FOR AN INVEST AT 25/1400Z.....ADDED
        C. NOAA'S P-3 (NOAA 43)WILL BEGIN RESEARCH MISSIONS
        INTO THIS SYSTEM EVERY 12 HOURS BEGINNING 25/0600Z.
  
 II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
 
 $$
 JWP
 
 NNNN