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Strong Storms Possible Late Saturday in North Florida

August 29, 2015   •   By UF Forecaster Sean Bellafiore   •    Updated: 54 mins ago

The sea breezes are at it again Saturday, but their ability to produce heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will be enhanced by a nearby area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely to begin along the Atlantic sea breeze near the St. John's River between 2 full story...

Real-time tropical weather tracking is also available from WUFT-FM, home of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network


FL Get A Plan!

Learn what to do before, during, and after a storm. Get Ready!


@FloridaStorms

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ACTIVE STORMS ATLANTIC OUTLOOK HURRICANE HUNTERS FORECAST DISCUSSION


Summary for Remnants of ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)

Published: Saturday August 29th, 2015 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... As of 9:30 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 the center of ERIKA was located near 21.5, -75.9 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Remnants of ERIKA Public Advisory Number 19

Published: Saturday August 29th, 2015 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Issued at 930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h).  This general
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central
Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10
inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and
eastern and central Cuba through Sunday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Turks and Caicos
Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through
Sunday.  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier
amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning
on Sunday.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected in squalls over
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas for the next several hours.  These conditions are expected
to spread into the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight.
Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are also possible over
eastern Cuba today.  Gusty winds could occur over southern Florida
beginning on Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system will
be available in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

Remnants of ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 19

Published: Saturday August 29th, 2015 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Issued at 930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

000
WTNT45 KNHC 291331
TCDAT5

REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Surface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika
has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of
the center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba.  Winds of
near 30 kt are occurring to the north and east of the center, and
these conditions will likely continue through at least this
afternoon.

The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the
northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24
hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours.
After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
could relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and
there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate.  Regardless of
regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread
across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during
the next couple of days.

This will be the last advisory on this system by the National
Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs.  Additional information
can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1330Z 21.5N  75.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Remnants of ERIKA Graphics

Published: Saturday August 29th, 2015 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)
Remnants of ERIKA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 13:31:25 GMT

Remnants of ERIKA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 14:50:47 GMT


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NHC Atlantic Outlook

Published: Saturday August 29th, 2015 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster)

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Storm Erika. The remnants of Erika, a trough of low
pressure, are currently located near central Cuba and the central
Bahamas and moving west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. This system
is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity, and recent
satellite wind data indicate it is producing winds to tropical storm
force. Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for
re-development of the system into a tropical cyclone. However,
conditions may become more conducive Sunday or Monday while it moves
northwestward to northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of re-development, the remnants of Erika are expected to
spread locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the
Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba, and central and southern Florida
during the next couple of days. Additional information on this
system can be found in marine forecasts and local forecast products
issued by the National Weather Service and the meteorological
services of Cuba and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located about 175 miles west of Conakry, Guinea, continue to
become better organized. A tropical depression could form during
the next day or so while the system moves northwestward and then
west-northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Beven





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NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Published: Saturday August 29th, 2015 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
T.S. ERICA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AT 1330
UTC...THE REMNANTS OF ERICA WERE ESTIMATED NEAR 21.5N 75.9W
MOVING TOWARD THE W-NW NEAR 20-25 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERICA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUN. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH
SUN RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DANGEROUS MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SE BAHAMAS. THE REMNANT LOW PRES IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 24N81W BY SUN MORNING. THE LAST PUBLIC
ADVISORY ON ERICA WAS ISSUED BY THE NHC AT 29/1330 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITH A
1008 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9.5N16W OR ABOUT 150
MILES WEST OF CONAKRY, GUINEA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 15W-
18W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NW AND THEN W-NW TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 10-15 MPH. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N43W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRES
LOCATED NEAR 12N45W TO 09N46W. THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING W AT
ABOUT 15-20 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED SOME INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE CLOUD FIELD AS WELL AS
A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN MAINLY W OF LOW CENTER FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 45W-48W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL IN THE LATEST GFS
STREAMLINE AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS AND WILL REACH THE
TROPICAL N ATLC JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MON.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 10N-20N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE E CARIBBEAN SUN EVENING...AND
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON. THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN
THE LATEST GFS STREAMLINE AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS...AND IT
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE AS OBSERVED IN THE
TPW ANIMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N18W TO 8N26W TO 12N42W.
THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 11N47W TO 10N55W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND ELONGATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 20N89W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO NEAR 20N97W. NORTHERLY WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS IN
THE MID-UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BEHIND
THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SE
CONUS. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N86W TO 26N90W AT 1500 UTC. A BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND
SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING MAINLY THE AREA N OF 25N E OF
88W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM
22N96W TO 19N95W SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF
21N W OF 92W. THE REMNANT LOW OF ERICA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NEAR 24N81W EARLY SUN AND TO NEAR 27N84W EARLY MON. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND WILL ALSO BRING AND INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE E GULF. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF ERICA ARE N OF AREA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THESE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ON SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...MAINLY S OF GUADELOUPE AHEAD OF
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE E. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
THROUGH SUN AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALOFT...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM
AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NICARAGUA THROUGH W-CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE NW BAHAMAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AS THE REMNANTS OF ERICA MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...EXPECT
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERICA ARE LOCATED BETWEEN CUBA
AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER
DATA BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF ERICA AND A 1022 MB 30N68W WITH A
SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 120
NM E QUADRANTS. THE REMNANT LOW OF ERICA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NEAR 24N81W EARLY SUN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE E-SE WINDS AND
SQUALLS WILL MOVE W-NW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO SE FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUN N OF THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT
LOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB SURFACE HIGHS...THE
FIRST LOCATED NEAR 25N38W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 25N45W. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CANARY ISLANDS AND EXTENDS TO
NEAR 25N33W. A RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR



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Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day

Published: Saturday August 29th, 2015 by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster)
 
 000
 NOUS42 KNHC 291543
 REPRPD
 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
 CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
 1145 AM EDT SAT 29 AUGUST 2015
 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
          VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2015
          TCPOD NUMBER.....15-095
 
 I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. REMNANTS OF ERIKA
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
        A. 30/1900Z                   A. 31/1130Z,1730Z
        B. AFXXX 1305A ERIKA          B. AFXXX 1405A ERIKA
        C. 30/1800Z                   C. 31/1000Z
        D. 25.5N 82.5W                D. 27.0N 83.5W
        E. 30/1830Z TO 30/2200Z       E. 31/1100Z TO 31/1730Z
        F. SFC TO 10,000FT            F. SFC TO 10,000FT
                
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM 
        IS VIABLE.
     3. REMARKS: ALL PREVIOUSLY TASKED MISSIONS ON ERIKA CANCELED.
        THE WB-57 (NASA 928) WILL FLY A 5 HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
        DEPARTING 30/1400Z. 55,000-65,000FT. POSSIBLE 36 DROPS. 
 
 II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. HURRICANE IGNACIO
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 78         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76 
        A. 30/1800Z,31/0000Z          A. 31/0600Z,1200Z
        B. AFXXX 0412E IGNACIO        B. AFXXX 0512E IGNACIO
        C. 30/1545Z                   C. 31/0345Z
        D. 18.1N 149.7W               D. 18.6N 150.3W
        E. 30/1715Z TO 31/0000Z       E. 31/0515Z TO 31/1200Z
        F. SFC TO 10,000FT            F. SFC TO 10,000FT
 
     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.    
 $$
 JWP