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The Tropical Atlantic Ocean is still active, but there are no imminent threats to the United States or Florida.

Tropical Storm Jerry could threaten Bermuda, and two new tropical depressions or storms could form in the next five days.

We are also watching an area of disturbed weather near Cuba closely, even though it is unlikely to develop into a tropical system.

Jerry threatens Bermuda

Latest NHC Advisory

Tropical Storm Jerry, whose center was located 320 miles north of Puerto Rico Saturday evening, is not a threat to any land areas other than Bermuda. The steering currents are strongly in support of allowing the disorganized tropical storm an opportunity to turn to the north and northeast over the next few days. Jerry could briefly become a hurricane again before approaching the island Tuesday, but thereafter it will likely interact with a cold front exiting the United States and become extra-tropical across the northern Atlantic.

Possible Puerto Rico threat

A large area of thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave was located just east of Barbados, and the National Hurricane Center now say it has a “high chance” of developing. NOAA hurricane hunters flew into the disturbance Saturday and found winds up to 35 mph, but there was no well-defined center of circulation. However, forecasters expect additional organization and gradual development to occur early this week as it moves into the eastern Caribbean.

Forecast models on the wave entering the Caribbean (as of Saturday evening)

Forecast models are typically not as reliable when there is no center of low pressure, but early data strongly suggests the system will turn north and potentially bring heavy rain or gusty winds to Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Monday night or Tuesday. Thereafter, forecast data is inconclusive on what may happen to the future tropical system and any projections otherwise would not be credible.

Strong tropical wave

A strong tropical wave over the Western Sahara is forecast to exit the African Continent by Monday. Once it does, it will be in an environment of warm ocean temperatures and very limited wind shear, both of which are forecast to contribute to rapid development. This tropical wave could become a tropical depression as early as Tuesday, and as it marches westward, long range forecast data suggests it could even become a tropical storm or hurricane over the central Atlantic by the end of the week.

Disturbance near Cuba

A broad and very weak area of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and just to the north of Cuba. The showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue moving west-northwesterly over the next several days and slide through the Florida Straits by midweek. “Tropical” development of this system is unlikely due to its interactions with land and unfavorable atmospheric conditions surrounding it. However, once the area of lower pressure enters the Gulf of Mexico, development is not out of the question in the days that follow.

The weather in and around Florida is expected to stay rather quiet this week, except for a slight increase in rain chances across the Florida Keys and portions of South Florida from the aforementioned disturbance. Even though there are no threats of tropical activity in the next five days, the next three weeks are historically still very active in the Sunshine State.

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UF Media Properties

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PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

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