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Please pardon our dust.  A more robust site is coming very soon!
Please pardon our very simple site (for now).  A more robust service is coming very soon!

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...32.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued east-northeasterly motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or over Bermuda later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...31.8N 67.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...31.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches)

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

"} /-->

Cue the lights, strike up the band - a cast of three tropical storms could make for some interesting Atlantic theater over the next two weeks.

But here’s a thought we won’t “dance around”: It is far too soon to speculate whether any of them will be a U.S. threat.

Tropical storms Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo have all taken the stage, but they may not be in rhythm. Jerry will likely take the lead with Karen, but both may be no match for Lorenzo’s moves. The question then is whether Karen will be just a supporting role, or possibly become a headliner with significant implications for Florida.

Dancing analogy aside, the situation in the Atlantic is complex and requires a bit of training (or explaining on our part).

Do they do the Fujiwhara?

Tropical Storm Karen is expected to move north out of the Caribbean into the southwestern Atlantic, almost following in Tropical Storm Jerry’s footsteps. However, Jerry is expected to move more slowly than Karen, which means the two circulations may come close enough to interact and spin around one another — a process known as “Fujiwhara”. Fujiwhara becomes more likely when two tropical cyclones come within about 500 miles of one another. Not all models are showing this unusual occurrence, but the possibility exists.

More on the Fujiwhara Effect
GOES-16 satellite imagery over the eastern Pacific Ocean from July 25 to August 1. Hurricane Irwin on the left collided with Hurricane Hilary on the right; the two merged before fading out over the ocean.

When two hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center. If one hurricane is a lot stronger than the other, the smaller one will orbit it and eventually come crashing into its vortex to be absorbed. Two storms closer in strength can gravitate towards each other until they reach a common point and merge, or merely spin each other around for a while before shooting off on their own paths. But often, the effect is additive when hurricanes come together — we usually end up with one massive storm instead of two smaller ones.

Or does Karen turn around?

Models on Karen as of Tuesday 5 pm

Even if Fujiwhara does not take place, the track forecast for Karen still has complexities. The position and strength of a building ridge over the eastern United States and western Atlantic will have a large say on the future track of Karen. Also, the strength and vertical depth of Karen itself will determine how and where it is likely to be steered. The various models that typically do the best in forecasting storm strength have also been in strong disagreement.

When Lorenzo takes over

There is one more, potentially complicating factor: Hurricane Lorenzo is rapidly strengthening and is expected to become a large, powerful hurricane over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean this weekend. If Lorenzo gets close enough to Jerry or Karen, there is the potential of interaction between it, and one or the other. In this situation, the circulation of influence from Lorenzo might be so large that Karen and/or Jerry could dissipate entirely.

So let’s take "five"

Even though few people like uncertainty, these potentially complex, hard-to-predict interactions — if they happen at all — are most likely to occur in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean over a span of nearly a week.

It may be more than five days from now before we can confidently project whether Jerry, Karen, or Lorenzo will ever have an effect on the United States mainland.

Latest on all three storms

The official advisories from the National Hurricane Center for each tropical storm or hurricane are provided below.

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...29.8N 68.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east- northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...29.2N 68.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

"} /-->

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UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

© 2019 UF College of Journalism and Communications 
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