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Jerry is now a hurricane, making it the fourth of the 2019 season. However, chances are increasing that it will not be a threat to the United States.

Environmental conditions will be conducive for further intensification, but only for a limited amount of time. Hurricane Jerry is forecast to enter an environment of stronger upper level winds this weekend, which may prevent further strengthening.

The official forecast track for Hurricane Jerry includes a west-northwestward motion through Saturday, passing north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. A turn is then expected to the north, and eventually northeast early next week sparing any direct effects to Florida or the Southeast. Confidence in a turn away from land early next, at least through Tuesday, has increased considerably. There is no official forecast on a tropical storm or hurricane beyond five days due to limitations in credible forecast modeling.

Meteorologists at the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network will continue to monitor Hurricane Jerry, and the entire Tropical Atlantic Basin, and provide periodic updates on this site, on your local NPR station, and through the Florida Storms Facebook and Twitter accounts.

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...29.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Imelda was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Imelda will move over eastern Texas through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system should become a remnant low by late Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":"RAINFALL: [TOP] Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Imelda. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

"} /-->

Wednesday morning update: Tropical Storm Imelda came ashore in southeast Texas Tuesday evening and has weakened, but it will continue to produce heavy rain and possible flooding as a remnant tropical low through the day Wednesday. 

Tropical Depression Ten intensified early Wednesday morning and became the season's tenth named storm, Tropical Storm Jerry.  

Hurricane Humberto intensified into a category 3 storm overnight, becoming the season's second major hurricane.

A new tropical storm and tropical depression formed Tuesday, both within a span of two hours. Neither are a threat to Florida at the present time. However, water enthusiasts on the Atlantic coast are still urged to be mindful of dangerous beach hazards from Hurricane Humberto through the end of the week.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda is likely to produce flooding rains across portions of southeast Texas through Wednesday, while Tropical Storm Jerry is poised to strengthen in the central Atlantic Ocean this weekend. Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is pulling away from land, but intensified to a category 2 storm Tuesday and is still producing hazardous coastal conditions across the Southeast.

HURRICANE HUMBERTO

Hurricane Humberto is expected to stay over the open Atlantic Ocean, but the storm’s large size has produced dangerous rip currents and large swells from the Mid Atlantic states to South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The rip current risk is likely to last a few more days, even as the hurricane moves farther away from the Atlantic seaboard.

A tropical storm warning has been upgraded to a hurricane warning for the island of Bermuda, as forecasters now fear the enlarging wind field will clip the island late Wednesday. Hurricane Humberto is officially forecast to become a major hurricane within the next 24 hours, before weakening over cooler waters in the northern Atlantic late this week.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA

Tropical Storm Imelda (pronounced ee-MEHL-dah) was reported to be sitting just offshore of Freeport, TX, about 50 miles southwest of the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Forecasters at the National Weather Service are warning of the potential for flash flooding in parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana from the slow-moving tropical storm. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 15 inches, are expected in these areas through Thursday.

TROPICAL STORM JERRY

Tropical Storm Jerry formed as a tropical depression late Tuesday morning in the deep tropics, roughly midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Warm ocean waters and light wind shear are expected to create an environment favorable for strengthening, and the latest National Hurricane Center forecast calls for now Tropical Storm Jerry to become a hurricane by Friday morning.

A subtropical ridge of high pressure, which often steers storms through the tropics, is expected to keep the depression moving west-northwestward for the next 4 to 5 days. The official track places the center of what is then likely to be a hurricane over or just north of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday. The projected hurricane is then expected near or north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend.

A new tropical wave soon to be moving through the far eastern Atlantic has also been identified by the National Hurricane Center as having a “low chance” of developing over the next five days. Rising air motion from equatorial waves and an active train of tropical waves moving off of Africa suggest additional tropical depressions or storms may form next week. However, it is much too early to determine whether Tropical Storm Jerry — or anything that forms behind it — will ever affect the United States mainland.

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sargent to Port Bolivar

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":"RAINFALL: [TOP] The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

"} /-->

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UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

© 2019 UF College of Journalism and Communications 
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