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<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...29.3N 58.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Karen were located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 58.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) but should stall and then begin moving westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Winds associated with the remnants are expected to gradually decrease during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" None.

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

"} /--><!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...28.8N 59.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 59.6 West. Karen is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. Karen should then stall overnight and begin moving westward on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Karen is expected to either become a remnant low or open up into a trough of low pressure by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" None.

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

"} /--><!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...28.3N 61.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Karen is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue this morning, but Karen is forecast to become nearly stationary by tonight or early Saturday. A westward motion is then anticipated by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" None.

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


"} /--><!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...27.8N 62.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 62.1 West. Karen is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), but is expected to become nearly stationary by Friday night or early Saturday. It should then begin to move westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" None.

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

"} /--><!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...27.2N 62.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 62.9 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm is expected to turn eastward and become nearly stationary by Friday night, and then begin moving westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" None.

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

"} /--><!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...26.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 63.3 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through this evening. Karen is then forecast to make a slow clockwise loop, ultimately moving westward by early Sunday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast by the weekend, and Karen is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" None.

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

"} /--><!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...25.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northeastward to eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Friday. Karen, or its remnants, are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" None.

"} /--> <!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

"} /-->

Forecast data became much clearer Wednesday on what may, or in this case may not, happen with Tropical Storm Karen in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Karen has refused to intensify since leaving Puerto Rico, and newest data suggests the storm may dissipate entirely before ever becoming a threat to Florida.

The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Karen to stay a minimal tropical storm over the next five days. Hurricane Specialist Robbie Berg even noted in his 5 pm advisory that the official forecast “could be lowered further” in subsequent updates.

This is a composite map of wind shear, moisture, and water temperatures to show level of favorability for tropical cyclones.

The reason for the downward trend is an environment that is likely to become increasingly unfavorable along its future path. Up until Wednesday afternoon, forecaster Berg noted there was a dichotomy of ideas on how Tropical Storm Karen would behave. However, recent struggles to become better organized have led his team to move in a weaker direction with Karen.

The track forecast for Tropical Storm Karen has generally remain unchanged. The season’s eleventh named storm is expected to continue on a north-northeast path through Friday, before slowing down and looping back to the west over the weekend. The forecast position at day five (Sunday) is roughly 800 miles to the east of Florida. If Karen is still a tropical storm or depression at that time, which is unlikely based on current data, it would be moving west or west-southwest and potentially nearing the state of Florida by the middle of next week.

It should be noted that what may happen to Karen or its remnant tropical wave beyond Sunday, especially as it relates to any implications to Florida, is not within the scope of any credible forecast information at this time.

Elsewhere in the tropics

Jerry was moving steading toward Bermuda, but had lost its tropical characteristics and become "post-tropical". The National Hurricane Center said gusty winds and large ocean swells were still possible on the island through Thursday.

Latest advisory on Jerry

Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to become a powerful hurricane over the eastern Atlantic Ocean by this weekend, but is not a threat to any land areas.

Latest advisory on Lorenzo

There are no other tropical developments expected in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico over the next five days.

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UF Media Properties

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PO Box 118400

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(352) 392-5551

UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

© 2019 UF College of Journalism and Communications 
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