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Please pardon our dust.  A more robust site is coming very soon!
Please pardon our very simple site (for now).  A more robust service is coming very soon!

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...30.4N 84.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions of the southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday night and Monday when Post-Tropical Nestor moves over the western Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km), east of the center over Atlantic waters just offshore the Georgia coast. The NOAA buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h)

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast of Florida.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":"RAINFALL: [TOP] Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States.

WIND: [TOP] Gale-force winds will develop along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A tornado remains possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia this afternoon and early evening, with a few tornadoes possible tonight through Sunday morning across the coastal Carolinas.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Storm surge levels will continue to subside through tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

"} /-->

Nestor is moving away from the Sunshine State, but the storm was much more than a nuisance for some Floridians.

At least three tornadoes have been confirmed across the peninsula, and heavy rain and storm surge caused moderate flooding across portions of the panhandle.

The season’s 14th tropical storm spawned powerful super cell thunderstorms that produced at least three confirmed tornadoes. One of them was particularly strong in Polk County just before midnight Friday night. The tornado damaged several structures, including a middle school, and even flipped a semi truck on I-4 near Lakeland. Other tornadoes were reported in the town of Seminole near Saint Petersburg and in Cape Coral.

A storm surge of up to three feet and torrential rains also berated Florida’s Big Bend overnight Friday, where moderate coastal flooding was reported. Heavy rain was also reported in portions of central Florida, were five inches have been estimated along I-4 between Orlando and Daytona Beach.

Post-tropical Storm Nestor will continue to accelerate northeastward, and by this evening, the majority of the rain shield will exit the Florida peninsula. However, southwesterly winds will continue, so a few showers or thunderstorms are possible through early evening Saturday.

Nestor’s influence on our state’s weather will diminish Sunday, and skies will become mostly sunny by late morning in most areas. Drier air will surge in from the northwest, giving most Floridians a break from the unsettled weather through Monday.

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...29.3N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 86.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning and early afternoon, followed by a motion toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the Florida coast, followed by slight weakening after the cyclone moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A private weather station at Bald Point on Apalachee Bay, Florida, recently measured a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). Buoys just offshore the coast of west-central Florida have been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 50 mph (80 km/h) in some of the heavier squalls during the past couple of hours.

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida, recently measured a water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water.

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 996 mb (29.41 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Indian Pass, Florida.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Indian Pass to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":"STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A few tornadoes are possible through midday in central and northern Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical Storm Nestor was estimated near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.0 West. Nestor is expected to move toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle later this morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the coast, but is forecast to weaken after it moves inland. The cyclone is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":"STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach or are already reaching the coast within the warning area, and will continue through this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A few tornadoes are possible through midday in northern and central Florida Peninsula, and later today and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...28.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently reported a minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":"STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area within the next few hours, and continue through Saturday afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States on Saturday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A tornado or two is possible through Saturday morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

"} /-->

Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are just hours away from reaching the Florida’s Big Bend and the Nature Coast.

Rainfall intensities and the risk of tornadoes are also on the increase overnight as Tropical Storm Nestor nears Florida's Panhandle by daybreak.

And here's another reminder: The greatest impacts from Tropical Storm Nestor will spread more than 200 miles from the center.

Snapshot of satellite data 8 pm Friday.

A Storm Surge Warning continues from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a large and expanding area of onshore tropical storm force winds are expected to push the water into the coast for hours. An inundation of three to five feet above normally dry ground is possible from Indian Pass to Crystal River, including the vulnerable low-lying areas around Cedar Key. An inundation of 2 to 4 feet of water above dry ground is possible from Crystal River to Clearwater Beach, with 1 to 2 feet of surge possible in and around Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Alabama state line to the Nature Coast. Inland Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for the entire Floridan Panhandle, including Tallahassee, Marianna and Crestview. By daybreak, the rain bands will only grow stronger and spread farther inland from Panama City to Tampa. Winds of 40 to 50 mph, with occasional gusts to 60 mph will be possible in the areas

Local impacts by city

PENSACOLA AREA

The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for inland Santa Rosa and Escambia counties, but a High Surf Warning continues along the coast. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected to stay well east of the area, but occasional downpours and gusts 30 to 40 mph will be possible overnight. Seas will be rough on Saturday and there will be high risk of rip currents, although skies should gradually clear throughout the day.

PANAMA CITY AREA

Periods of heavy rain will continue through noon Saturday, and most areas will likely receive a storm total of 2 to 4 inches. Tropical storm wind gusts up of in the 40 to 60 mph range could occur in the strongest rain bands, and this is also when an isolated tornado is possible. The highest storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is expected east of Indian Pass, but some coastal flooding is likely near Mexico Beach and Panama City Beach at times of high tide early Saturday morning.

TALLAHASSEE AREA

The heaviest rain bands will begin after midnight and last through noon Saturday. Most areas will likely receive a storm total of 3 to 5 inches. Even though the region has been in a drought, repeating downpours with high rainfall rates could lead to flash flooding in some areas. Tropical storm wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph could occur in the strongest rain bands, and this is also when an isolated tornado is also possible. The highest storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is expected along the Big Bend, east of Indian Pass. The highest water levels will occur around high tide Saturday morning, which is at 5:31 am near St. George Island.

JACKSONVILLE AREA

The heaviest rain will reach northeast Florida in the midday hours Saturday, and storm totals will likely range between 1 and 2 inches in most areas before it ends Saturday night. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and an isolated tornado are also possible when some of the stronger rain bands rotate through.

GAINESVILLE, OCALA AND NATURE COAST

A storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is possible along the Nature Coast, with the water reaching the highest levels during times of high tide at 5 am early Saturday. The heaviest rain bands will move through overnight and last through midday Saturday. Storm totals will range from around 3 or 4 inches near the coast, to 2 or 3 inches farther inland.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible in the stronger rain bands near the coast, with gusts up to 40 mph possible near Gainesville and Ocala, where a Wind Advisory is also in effect. An isolated tornado is possible with any thunderstorm activity early Saturday.

TAMPA, ST PETE AREA

A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the coast from Clearwater Beach north, with the water reaching the highest levels during times of high tide early Saturday. Periods of heavy rain will continue through Saturday morning, tapering off some by midday Saturday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph could occur during the stronger rain bands, and this is when an isolated tornado is also possible. The risk of tornadoes is greatest immediately along the coast between 11 pm and 5 am. Rain totals will range from 2 to 4 inches near the coast, tapering off to 1 to 3 inches farther inland.

ORLANDO AREA

The heaviest rain will move through Central Florida Saturday morning and midday, gradually tapering off by early evening. Rainfall totals will likely range between 1 and 2 inches in most areas. Wind gusts up to 30 mph and an isolated tornado are also possible when some of the stronger rain bands rotate through.

SOUTH FLORIDA

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday evening, although the rain is not expected to be widespread. Breezy south winds will gust to 25 mph at times Saturday and Sunday, resulting in rough seas and choppy inland waterways.

The tornado risk

The tropical storm is expected to move ashore in the Florida Panhandle Saturday, and this is when a large area of heavy rain and gusty winds will rotate across portions of north and central Florida. The National Weather Service has placed most areas of the state north of I-4 under a “marginal risk” of severe weather, advising that an isolated tornado will be possible with any embedded thunderstorm activity that develops in the heavier rain bands.

Rainfall amounts

The relatively fast movement of the storm is likely to mitigate the inland flood potential, although rainfall rates in some areas might be high enough to cause localized flooding of low-lying or poorly drained areas. Rainfall totals from the storm north of the I-4 corridor are expected to range from 2 to 5 inches near the Gulf Coast, to 1 to 3 inches farther inland. Lesser and more widely scattered amounts of rain are expected across portions of south and southwest Florida.

The tropical storm is forecast to exit the state Saturday afternoon and evening, taking most of the rain and adverse weather with it. A much drier and calmer day is expected across Florida on Sunday, although breezy conditions may continue and the risk of rip currents might be elevated at all area beaches.

FRIDAY 11 AM UPDATE: Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters have found the system to be stronger, and the National Hurricane Center says maximum winds have increased to 60 mph. Forecasters say the system is not officially a subtropical or tropical storm yet because it lacks a “well-defined” center of circulation. Nonetheless, the forecast wind speeds have been adjusted slightly higher and probabilities of it being classified with the name Nestor remain at 90 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is expected to become Subtropical Storm Nestor as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida later today.

Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are forecast to reach coastal areas of the panhandle and west-central Florida by Friday evening.

Storm Surge Warning

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a large and expanding area of onshore tropical storm force winds are expected to push the water into the coast for hours. An inundation of three to five feet above normally dry ground is expected from Indian Pass to Crystal River, including the vulnerable low-lying areas around Cedar Key. An inundation of 2 to 4 feet of water above dry ground is possible from Crystal River to Clearwater Beach, with 1 to 2 feet of surge possible in and around Tampa Bay.

The National Hurricane Center has noted that surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. How high the water may get in your neighborhood depends heavily on the timing of the highest water levels as they relate to the tidal cycle. Residents in an evacuation zone are encouraged to listen to local officials for further information and possible evacuation orders.

Tropical Storm Warning

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Alabama state line to the Nature Coast. Inland Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for the entire Floridan Panhandle, including Tallahassee, Marianna and Crestview. Tropical storm force wind gusts and periods of heavy rain could begin along the coast in the warned area as early as Friday evening, with those conditions likely spreading inland overnight.

Tornado risk

The subtropical storm is expected to move ashore in the Florida Panhandle Saturday, and this is when a large area of heavy rain and gusty winds will rotate across portions of north and central Florida. The National Weather Service has placed most areas of the state north of I-4 under a “marginal risk” of severe weather, advising that an isolated tornado will be possible with any embedded thunderstorm activity that develops in the heavier rain bands.

Rainfall amounts

The relatively fast movement of the storm is likely to mitigate the inland flood potential, although rainfall rates in some areas might be high enough to cause localized flooding of low-lying or poorly drained areas. Rainfall totals from the storm north of the I-4 corridor are expected to range from 2 to 5 inches near the Gulf Coast, to 1 to 3 inches farther inland. Lesser and more widely scattered amounts of rain are expected across portions of south and southwest Florida.

The subtropical storm is forecast to exit the state Saturday night, taking most of the rain and adverse weather with it. A much drier and calmer day is expected across Florida on Sunday, although breezy conditions may continue and the risk of rip currents might be elevated at all area beaches.

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UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

© 2019 UF College of Journalism and Communications 
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