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700 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better organized and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has been developing closer to the center since yesterday. If this trend continues, then a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form in the next day or so while the system moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The low is forecast to interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development is unlikely after that time. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Latto
100 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure centered a little more than 200 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continue to show signs of organization. Although the surface circulation of the disturbance appears to be gradually consolidating, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that it does not yet have a well-defined center. Additional development is expected and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form while the system moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic during the next day or two. The low is forecast to interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development is unlikely after that time. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Zelinsky
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers associated with a low pressure system located several hundred miles west of the westernmost Azores continue to show signs of organization. If the current organization of shower activity persists, advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical or subtropical storm later today or tonight. The system will likely move over colder waters on Thursday and further development is unlikely after that time. The low is producing gale-force winds and these winds are forecast to continue today, regardless of development. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

Forecaster Pasch
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently developed Tropical Depression Seventeen over the western Gulf of Mexico. 1. Shower activity continues to become better organized in association with a small-scale low pressure area embedded within a larger extratropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. If current trends continue, advisories on a tropical or subtropical cyclone could be initiated later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast, and interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts are issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2.

Forecaster Beven
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently developed Tropical Depression Seventeen over the western Gulf of Mexico. 1. Shower activity continues to become better organized in association with a small-scale low pressure area embedded within a larger extratropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. If current trends continue, advisories on a tropical or subtropical cyclone could be initiated later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast, and interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts are issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2.

Forecaster Beven
945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf of Mexico and southwest of the Azores. 1. Updated: Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a tropical cyclone is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico, and advisories will be initiated on this system later this morning. The system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post- tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. 2. Updated: Recent satellite derived winds indicate that the small non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores is producing tropical-storm-force winds near the center. The thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized and if this trend continues a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast for the next day or so and interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Avila
945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf of Mexico and southwest of the Azores. 1. Updated: Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a tropical cyclone is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico, and advisories will be initiated on this system later this morning. The system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post- tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. 2. Updated: Recent satellite derived winds indicate that the small non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores is producing tropical-storm-force winds near the center. The thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized and if this trend continues a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast for the next day or so and interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Avila
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico is becoming better defined, and that the associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization. It appears likely that a short-lived tropical cyclone will form later today. However, the system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Shower activity has increased this morning near the center of a large non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores. Some additional development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves generally east-northeastward.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$

Forecaster Brennan NNNN
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$

Forecaster Brennan NNNN
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PO Box 118400

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(352) 392-5551

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