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Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened overnight, and is now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane prior to landfall.

There is still uncertainty in the future path and intensity of the storm, but forecast trends suggest Dorian will be a significant threat to Florida or the Southeast U.S. coastline Sunday or Monday.

Wednesday 5 am Forecast from the National Hurricane Center

In their 5 am Wednesday morning update, The National Hurricane Center said Dorian was located 85 miles southeast of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Top sustained winds had increased to 60 mph, and the storm was moving northwest at 13 mph.

On its current path, the storm will pass near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later Wednesday, where Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect. A summary of the latest official advisory is provided in the section below.

The center of the storm reformed farther to the north on Tuesday, which means the storm is less likely to move over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. As a result, Dorian is not likely to weaken quite as much over Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands and be over the open waters east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build near the Mid Atlantic coast over the weekend, causing Dorian to turn toward more toward west in the general direction of Florida. The vast majority of the computer models forecast this scenario, but a few of the models forecast a weak trough over the Ohio Valley to disrupt the steering ridge. If this were to happen, Dorian could slow down on its approach to Florida and turn more toward the Carolinas.

The northward shift in the models was first identified Tuesday evening, to which the National Hurricane Center reminded its users that the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Very little wind shear, warm waters, and greater moisture will surround Dorian as it approaches the Bahamas and Florida this weekend. These factors all suggest Dorian will become a hurricane on its approach. The latest National Hurricane Center Forecast makes the storm a category 2 hurricane just offshore from Florida on Sunday evening. However, in its technical discussion, the Hurricane Center said it may have to adjust the intensity forecast upward in future forecasts as several of the models are projecting a stronger hurricane.

Suggested Actions

Information in this section includes some opinion, with the intent of helping you prepare for a possible emergency.

As of Wednesday morning, potential landfall from Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Dorian is still more than 100 hours away. There is never a bad time to prepare. However, some Floridians now might have a preparation deadline as it relates to this storm.

Forecasters say that residents and vacationers should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian in the coming days and ensure they have hurricane plan in place. If you feel overwhelmed, or don't know where to start, we've created a page of helpful tips to get you started.

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...16.8N 63.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 63.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Dorian is then forecast to move to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and near or to the east of the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques
- Culebra
- U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques
- Culebra
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- British Virgin Islands
- Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations:

Western Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Kitts to Anguilla...1 to 4 inches. Southern and Eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Northwestern Puerto Rico...1 to 4 inches. Haiti and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches Southern Bahamas...1 to 4 inches. Northern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches. Florida Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

"} /-->

The National Hurricane Center now forecasting Tropical Storm Dorian to become a hurricane prior to landfall in Florida Sunday.

In their 11 pm update Tuesday, forecasters expressed a notable increase in confidence that Dorian would intensify over the warm Atlantic waters east of the Bahamas Friday, before turning west toward the peninsula over the weekend. This was despite the possibility that Tropical Storm Dorian weakens some Wednesday and Thursday from land interactions with the island of Puerto Rico.

The latest official advisory from the National Hurricane Center is summarized in the section below.

Although confidence has grown on a track toward Florida, Hurricane Specialist Richard Pasch said uncertainty with regards to the intensity forecast remains “higher than usual”.

“[It’s] problematic because of a significant spread in the model guidance and some run-to-run inconsistencies,” Pasch wrote in his Tuesday evening forecast discussion.

The forecast data Richard speaks of has been trending in the direction toward a stronger storm than the Hurricane Center is willing to explicitly show at this time, which he also noted. This is likely due to the uncertainties that remain while the cyclone is moving through the northeast Caribbean.

Suggested Actions

Information in this section includes some opinion, with the intent of helping you prepare for a possible emergency.

As of Wednesday morning, potential landfall from Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Dorian is still more than 100 hours away. There is never a bad time to prepare. However, some Floridians now might have a preparation deadline as it relates to this storm.

The most important thing you can do now is to stay informed and finish your hurricane plan. If you feel overwhelmed, or don't know where to start, we've created a page of helpful tips to get you started.

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...16.0N 63.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 63.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea overnight, pass over or near Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday night, and near or to the east of the central Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Samana.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques
- Culebra
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- British Virgin Islands
- Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations:

Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles tonight. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...14.2N 61.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Martinique radar near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 61.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Isla Saona to Samana. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico
- Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Martinique
- Puerto Rico
- Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Dominica
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
- Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":" RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday:

Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to subside later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

"} /-->

Latest forecast data suggests there is an increasing chance that Tropical Storm Dorian will affect parts of Florida this weekend. However, the location, timing and extent of those impacts can not be credibly projected at this time.

Tropical Storm Dorian was moving through the Windward Islands Tuesday morning, and as of the 5 am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, was producing winds up to 50 mph. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the eastern third of the Dominican Republic. Official advisory information has been included in the section below.


Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola Wednesday. Thereafter, forecasters have expressed “considerable uncertainty” on the track and strength of the season’s fourth tropical storm. Potential interactions with land, and the extent to which Dorian’s structure may be affected, are difficult to ascertain with any confidence at this point.

Potential Paths

Forecast model lines, as of 5 am Tuesday morning.

The average forecast track error of a forecast 48 hours into the future is around 60 nautical miles (either side of the line), based on data published by the National Hurricane Center since 1970. The produces a diameter of uncertainty larger than Puerto Rico is wide (west to east), which is about 110 miles. This “cone of uncertainty”, as it is often called, is nearly 400 miles wide at the time Dorian could make landfall in Florida, or roughly the distance from Miami to Jacksonville.

Expert Analysis

Meteorologist Ray Hawthorne has contributed to this section of the story.

How strong Dorian will be as it moves near or over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico will have significant future implications to Florida, if it affects the state. For the last few days, dry air surrounding the storm has prevented it from significantly strengthening. However, the winds high in the atmosphere above Dorian have been light, which is why it has been able to maintain its intensity. Several of the models forecast Dorian to come close to axis of stronger wind shear as it approaches the Dominican Republic and/or Puerto Rico. These stronger high-altitude winds may entrain even more dry air into Dorian, which would cause weakening.

Hispaniola and Puerto Rico are both mountainous islands. If Dorian moves directly over the rugged terrain, the storm’s spin would become disrupted. It’s also entirely possible the tropical storm will move over the Mona Passage (which is the strip of water between the two islands). Should that scenario occur, Dorian may not weaken quite as much as it otherwise would.

If Dorian survives the wind shear, dry air, and land interaction, the global models forecast a favorable environment for the storm to strengthen Friday into the upcoming holiday weekend. The water temperatures surrounding the Bahamas are in the mid 80s and light wind shear is anticipated. Odds are starting to tilt in favor of the storm holding on and restrengthening near the Bahamas, but this is not yet a guarantee.

The Bottom Line

The future path of Dorian is much clearer than its future strength. A large ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean and Mid-Atlantic states would steer the storm in the general direction of the Florida east coast. A large majority of the most reliable models show this scenario unfolding. Once the storm passes Hispaniola on Thursday, we should have much greater confidence regarding the storm’s strength and potential effects to the Sunshine State.

Due to the expressed high levels of uncertainty in Tropical Storm Dorian’s forecast, all residents of Florida have been encouraged by the National Weather Service to monitor the progress of the storm, stay informed, and ensure their hurricane plan is in place.

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e-------
LOCATION...13.5N 60.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 60.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Samana. The government of the Dominican Republic has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch on the south coast of the island from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque and on the north coast from Samana to Puerto Plata.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico
- Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Martinique
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Dominica
- Grenada and its dependencies
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
- Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":"RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Barbados...Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6 inches. Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially where totals exceed 4 inches.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles today.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-table-of-contents {"text_block-6-261074_string":"u003cdivu003e
LOCATION...11.2N 52.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

u0026nbsp;u003cbru003eu003c/divu003e"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM SUMMARY","text_block-3-253470_string":" At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 52.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"WATCHES AND WARNINGS","text_block-3-253470_string":"
WHAT'S NEW:

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados and a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Barbados

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches could be issued later today for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. "} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"STORM HAZARDS","text_block-3-253470_string":"RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning are by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

"} /-->

<!-- wp:oxygen-vsb/ovsb-section-w-text {"headline-4-253470_string":"NEXT ADVISORY","text_block-3-253470_string":"
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

"} /-->

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UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

© 2019 UF College of Journalism and Communications 
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