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200 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms that extend from the southeastern
Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated today, conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone
formation over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to
form as the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph across the
Florida Straits and southern Florida, and into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. This disturbance will likely produce periods of locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday,
and across Florida during the weekend. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon, if necessary.

Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form early next week while it moves
westward over the tropical Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg

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(352) 392-5551

UF Media Properties

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PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

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