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200 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward over the tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila

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(352) 392-5551

UF Media Properties

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

 

(352) 392-5551

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