For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that
the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the
Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized. The
disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche
later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive to support development, and a tropical depression
or storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then
forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern
Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Interests
along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress
of this disturbance as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required for a portion of this area later today or tonight.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely
to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El
Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.
For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products
from your national meteorological service.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.