800 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located near Grand Bahama Island.

1. An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this system is currently
producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression
is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms continues in
association with an area of low pressure located over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Roberts