For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Dorian, located over Atlantic Canada east of St. Anthony,
Newfoundland, and on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located over the
north-central Atlantic Ocean.
1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days while the low moves
west-southwestward to westward across the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. By Thursday, the upper-level winds are forecast to become
less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles north and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a surface trough interacting with an upper-level
low. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent the
development of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward to the north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto
Rico. By mid-week, environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development when the disturbance moves near the
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.