Showers and thunderstorms extending from the eastern Caribbean Sea
to just north of the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical
wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to
northwestward across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next
few days, producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some
flooding across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance, however, is
likely during this time as upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive. The system is forecast to move near or over the
Straits of Florida and the Bahamas by the end of the week, where
environmental conditions could be a little more conducive for
development.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch